Have We Lost The Robotics War?

American factories installed 34,000 industrial robots last year. The big one-armed machines that weld, lift, and assemble.

That sounds like a lot until you hear China’s number: 300,000.

Suddenly, 34,000 feels small.

The first reaction is obvious: China is winning the technology race. More robots mean faster production and better output. On that front, they’re ahead.

But the second-order question is harder.

The 300,000 robots will churn out more “things” faster and cheaper. But if each robot does the work of ten people, that’s 3 million jobs displaced. And 3 million lost jobs mean 3 million households spending less.

But one person’s spending is another person’s revenue. So that means this gain in efficiency has a cost in revenue somewhere else.

This isn’t just a story about efficiency. It’s about demand.

China may not be replacing workers out of choice. Rising wages, an aging workforce, and intense global competition force their hand. Automation keeps their factories alive.

So who’s really winning? China may have won this battle for productivity. But if the social cost cuts into demand, the war for sustainable growth is far from decided.

Only time will tell which side of that trade-off proves right.

There are so many unknowns in a system where every output is the input to something else. And that is precisely why it is difficult to make predictions. The reality is that no one knows. In fact, I’d go so far as to say no one can know.

So what should we do?

We can’t predict the full chain of effects. But we can prepare.

First, invest in skills that machines can’t yet copy. These will stay valuable even as tasks shift.

Second, get really good at using machines for what you cannot do as well.

The barbell effect of this is that you will be able to leverage the upside from both—the gains from what they can do and the value in what they cannot.

Stop betting on a single forecast.

Bet on adaptability.

The future will likely belong to those who can do what machines cannot while also knowing how to use machines to their full potential.

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